Picture: Michel Bega

By Naadiya Adams

A recent sample study from Ipsos has found that the ANC will get the lion’s share of votes in the local government elections next month.

This after about 1500 South Africans across the country from various race, culture, age and gender backgrounds were interviewed about their anticipation of the upcoming municipal election. The poll also found that the EFF and DA would also enjoy double-digit support.

In an interview with Radio Islam, Mari Harris, Director and Political Analyst at IPSOS South Africa says the sample was evenly spread.

“What we did is to ask people obviously what party are they going to vote for and if they not going to vote, why not. And we also ask the question of whether they wanted to vote and we used this question to filter the results because as you know, not everybody in the country will go out and vote. If we look at those who say they want to vote, it is 71% of the sample,” explains Harris.

A computer-assisted, random digit dialing, telephonic interview study was undertaken from 16 to 20 August, but researchers have stressed that it was “not a prediction of the election” while it also noted that at least 96% of the South African population has access to a cellphone.

According to the Ipsos study 49.3% of voters are likely to cast their ballot for the governing party in local government elections due end of October. The same study found that support for the main opposition Democratic Alliance stands at 17.9%.

“If we look at the DA support its currently at 17.9%, it has been much lower in the previous three surveys that we did and the reason for it being lower was exactly the internal problems of the DA and they stabilized quite a bit after John Steenhuizen became the official leader,” explained Harris.

The Economic Freedom Fighters current support is around 14.5% share of the votes, which has increased since the last survey, their gain is seemingly at the expense of the ruling ANC who have consecutively been losing support for some time.

“The EFF was stable for many years, but they are now winning support in places like Limpopo, North West and the Eastern Cape. Where they really showed support in the Eastern Cape was in the 2019 National Election. And if we look at where the ANC is losing support, its in the metros,” said Harris

The local government elections are going ahead between 27 October and 1 November after the Constitutional Court last Friday dismissed an application by the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) to postpone them until next year, citing the Mosneke report that stated due to the Covid-19 pandemic elections would not be free and fair if held this year.