Faizel Patel, Radio Islam News, 2014-03-20

Russian President Vladimir Putin completed the first annexation of another European country’s territory since the Second World War by absorbing Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula into the Russian Federation with the stroke of a pen.

Less than three weeks after unmarked Russian soldiers took over Crimea’s parliament, it was the Russian national anthem that played while Putin and Crimean leaders signed the treaty to make Crimea part of the Russian Federation declaring it in the hearts and minds of the people.

The Crimea referendum to secede from Ukraine was held under Russian military supervision.

Dr. Dale McKinley an independent political analyst detailed a brief history of the Crimean conflict to Radio Islam.

He said Crimea has a very rich and conflictual history and has always been a strategic and contested area.

“There was the Crimean war back in the 1800’s when Russia and Europe fought over that area because it’s always been a strategic area crossing over between Europe and Asia,” said McKinley.

“After the Soviet Union came into being, what is now Ukraine at that stage was absorbed in to the Soviet Union and remained there until the fall of the Soviet Union. It is during that time a lot of Russians moved into the area and Crimea in particular which borders the Black Sea has always had a fairly sizeable Russian population or Russian speaking population,” said Dr. McKinley.

Dr. McKinley said that when Ukraine gained Independence in the 1990’s, Crimea became part of Ukraine but there were always tensions between the east and west of Ukraine including the Russian and Ukrainian speaking population.

“As a result of the ouster of the pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych recently last year, that would’ve put it into a situation where Crimea basically was invaded and Russian troops began to move into Crimea to declare its protected Black Sea Ports because that is where the Russian Black Sea fleet is based.”

“And the majority of the population is Russian speaking. So they then held a referendum just a while back and voted to secede or voted basically to join the Russian Federation.”

The strategic location of Crimea according to McKinley benefits Russia. He said:

• From a military issue the Russian Black Sea Fleet has always been based in Crimea and Russia considers it a strategic area from which it deploys its naval power into the Mediterranean and particularly in the whole Middle Eastern Area.

• The fact that Ukraine is next to other Soviet Republics like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan  that have been embroiled in conflict for the past 20 years. 

• It’s economically strategic because a lot of the Russian pipelines that pump natural gas to Europe, which is the largest importer of natural gas, runs through Ukraine.

Professor Andre Thomashausen, the Head of the Institute of Comparative Law concurred with Dr McKinley that Crimea is strategically located. However he emphasized that one has to admit that Putin is a brilliant strategist and peacemaker.

“He’s actually been nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize. He saved world peace in Syria with his proposition to look after the chemical weapons arsenal and he’s now with a very clear decision in favour of democracy, in favour of a referendum and in favour of the self determination of the people,” said Thomashausen.

“He has basically put a checkmate on (Barack) Obama and on his war mongers; extraordinarily Hillary Clinton’s the worst of them, she compared Putin to Hitler,” added Professor Thomashausen.

Dr. McKinley said Putin is a good tactician but was not sure of the strategic component. “My concern is for the Ukrainian people…as we have seen in many other parts of the world before, often it’s the people that caught in between when the elephants fight and the grass suffers.”

Dr. McKinley said the outcry by the West over the annexation of Crimea is because they feel Ukraine elected a new government just two months ago and that Russian troops broke the political sovereignty of Ukraine and entered the country illegally.

“What happened was Russian troops basically took over most of the key installations which Ukraine authorities considered to be occupation…So what they are basically saying is it’s a land grab, Russia came in, set up the situation and made sure that the referendum went their way.”

Asked if the referendum was conducted under occupation, Professor Thomashausen said the details are theoretical because the sovereign authority of Ukraine no longer existed. “The people who pretend to be the current rulers of the Ukraine came to power via a coup, they breached the constitution, the constitution would have required an impeachment process.”

Professor Thomashausen said the referendum itself had such an overwhelming majority in resolve that even if there was 30% of vote rigging out of the 97% that voted in favour to be part of the Russian Federation, there would be still be a clear majority.

The West has threatened to impose sanctions on Russia for the annexation of Crimea.

Professor Thomashausen said he’s not sure that sanctions will hurt Russia, but it will hurt people. “They will make travel more difficult, they will make trade more difficult and it will be definitely be a big step backward and in the wrong direction.”

Dr. McKinley believes that in the coming weeks, the situation in Crimea will be a “tit for tat” battle, like two bullies on a playground squaring up to each other making threats and throwing a few punches around.

“I don’t see a resolution in the short term because the two largest powers, the United States and Russia have staked out particular positions on Ukraine and are not really willing to move on it,” said Dr. McKinley.

Professor Thomashausen on the other hand believes the situation is a 'storm in a teacup'. “The big tension will pass us by. There will be some limited sanctions…otherwise the world cannot afford to go to war against Russia and Russia cannot afford to stop trading with the world…So I think within a few months things will quieten down”

(Twitter: @Faizie143)