Umm Muhammed Umar

Scientists have raised the concern that a 6th COVID-19 wave is expected to hit the country in a few weeks. The first signs of it are apparently already visible. However, all indications are that this will be as mild as the 5th wave. According to the National Institute for Communicable Disease’s weekly epidemiology brief on the respiratory disease, over 1 400 new cases were reported last week, a 10.9% decrease from the week before. Radio Islam spoke to Dr Faried Abdullah of the Progressive Health Forum?

Dr Abdullah said that what was unique about South Africa was that all the waves have been very regular, from one peak to the next, from one trough to the next. He said, “It’s really been about six months apart. So, we do expect the sixth wave to come, six months after it started earlier this year in around April. So yeah, September/October, should see the start of a new wave.” He added that each wave, from the fourth wave on, has proven to be milder. He said that the reason the disease has been increasingly milder is that more and more people have some kind of immunity to COVID 19. Dr Abdullah said, “if you had COVID-19 before or you’ve had a vaccination, then the disease presents in a milder way.” He added that it could, however, “be quite difficult to differentiate between seasonal flu or the common cold…….and then allergies and COVID-19.” He explained that COVID-19 would present as a much more severe flu like illness, saying, “it’s becoming more and more difficult to distinguish between COVID-19 and influenza, but this period is not really the peak of influenza.” Dr Abdullah encouraged those who had not as yet been vaccinated against the virus to do so before the sixth wave.

During the second and the third wave, although there were campaigns, nationally, to get people vaccinated, there was reluctance in South Africa, for various reasons. According to Dr Abdullah, people adjusted their behaviour according to the perception of their risk – people who feel that they’re not at risk, are less likely to vaccinate. He said, “in a way, that’s kind of logical, because we have advised the public not to wear masks anymore, not to really be concerned about social distancing.” He explained, “going forward, we have to focus on those people who are at high risk. So, if you are elderly, if you have never been vaccinated, and never had COVID before, and also those people with chronic diseases, with some immune autoimmune diseases, those are the people that really, we need to focus (on in) our vaccination campaign.”

While Dr Abdullah advised, “There’s no reason to change our behaviour. We can continue life as normal, but it’s that small group of people that are highly vulnerable. They should just be more careful about wearing masks in crowded places…… about being very close to large crowds of people, and to vaccinate,” he also cautioned, “we cannot be certain that there won’t be a new variant, and if there is a new variant, which has a different clinical presentation, meaning it affects people more severely, or in a different way, then we’ll have to adjust our behaviour and retrace our steps.”