By Annisa Essack
31:08:2022

Brazilians will vote in what many predict will be the nation’s most important presidential election this October. Recent months have seen a tightening of the campaign between current president Jair Bolsonaro and former president Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva.

Brazil was one of the countries hardest impacted by COVID-19, so much of Bolsonaro’s first term was devoted to the government’s response to the pandemic.

However, Bolsonaro’s most recent attacks on the country’s electoral system are now dominating headlines and raising anxiety. The stakes for Brazil’s democracy and economic direction are rising as the election draws nearer.

Gustavo de Carvalho, a Research Fellow at the Institute for Global African Affairs at the University of Johannesburg in South Africa, joined Radio Islam International to provide insight into the country’s political landscape.

According to De Carvalho, the last decade has been turbulent for Brazil, where the political process has become polarised, and he attributes this to Lula’s role in the current climate. He added that Lula was expected to run in the election in 2018, but he has remained an influential force in the country.

He predicts that the current election will not only be about “visions of the world, that each of the candidates has, often very diametrically opposite sides of ideological perspectives, but in particular, how Brazilians see the future of Brazil being better, with Bolsonaro or Lula?”

On the “Carwash Scandal,” he commented that processes and some charges had been politically driven and disputed by the people. However, he added that the previous election was centralised on corruption, but this time the focus is related chiefly to the economy.

In his assessment of Bolsonaro, he described his term as volatile, especially handling the COVID-19 pandemic. Bolsonaro’s mandate during his previous election campaign to turn the economy around had not been met. His purchase of more than 120 apartments with cash has recently raised questions surrounding corruption.

These issues, he says, will make it more difficult for Bolsonaro to be re-elected.

With the first presidential debate held last week, there was much mudslinging, particularly against Bolsonaro but against Lulu as well. De Carvalho says that this speaks to the possibility of alliances.

He further explained the election process and said that Brazil has two rounds for the elections, and he eluded that the polls could go into a second if no candidate wins with 50% plus one of the votes in the first round. This would also allow other candidates to look into their position relating to the winners and move forward.

De Carvalho says the televised debates will help identify how the trajectory will happen and make the next few months tense. He says there is concern about some narratives Bolsonaro has been presenting. This includes the validity and equality of the electoral system, which has been disputed by most in the country. However, there are fears and indications that Bolsonaro will be using this strategy to question the election results should he lose.

So, all eyes will be on the electronic voting systems.

Brazil has a mandatory vote, but with both candidates having high rejection rates in the country, abstention may also be increased, significantly impacting the result.

Will Bolsonaro reject the election results? — De Carvalho says it is a possibility, although he has not been forthright about it. He says it would depend on how much support he garners and whether the army will support him.

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