Tembisa Fukude, who is the Senior Fellow at the think tank for global research, Africa – Asia Dialogues discussed China’s involvement in Tigray Province in Ethiopia with Radio Islam. The Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is seeking to secede from Ethiopia, creating an independent country in the province of Tigray. Maulana Sulaymaan Ravat asserted that the move was supported by rival to China, the United States.

Fukude said that China has not expressed its support, but is unlikely to support the cessation, particularly from Ethiopia proper. He said this was because China was fighting its own secessionist activism in Taiwan, for example, and in Hong Kong, so it was unlikely that China would support anything akin to what is fighting. However, Ethiopia is fighting the cessation of Tigray. It is fighting the TPLF against secession for Tigray. He says the reason behind Tigrayans, or TPLF, wanting to secede is because the TPLF was the leading political party in Ethiopia for quite some time during the time of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. Fukude said, “When he left power and Abi Ahmed took over, they continued to cling on to power, but Abi Ahmed vowed that he was going to deal with those that were involved in corruption and violation of human rights, and most of those were members of the TPLF.” He said that that was why they actually recouped in Tigray and started to form this separatist movement, pushing for secession, so that they could protect themselves from possible persecution from Abi Ahmed. While Ahmed seems to have his back against the wall when it comes to the TPLF forces, in what seems to be a strategy, Fakude said that he doubted that Ahmed would relent in preventing the TPF from establishing a country within a country. He said that was because if that happened it would set a very dangerous precedent. Abi Ahmed would so continue to fight. He proposed that Ethiopia was recouping and gathering more resources to continue to fight.

Another point brought up by Fukude was that Ethiopia announced on Monday that it was attempting, for the second time, to fill the Grand Renaissance Dam. Ethiopia has two countries that opposed the dam’s construction Sudan, and Egypt. He said it seemed that Ethiopia wanted to concentrate on the dam for now. Filling the dam is a very contested issue, “not only by the Egyptians and the Sudanese, but there’s also opposition from other countries aside from Sudan and Egypt, in particular the United States in opposing Ethiopia going ahead and filling the dam. According to Fukade, this could simply be a break to recover from the war in Tigray, in which Ethiopia did indeed suffer many setbacks. While he says that Ethiopia is currently ‘taking stock’ of what occured, he emphasized, “But I don’t think that this is the end, the conflict is likely to continue.”

China is a serious actor in the Horn of Africa, but the African Union and Ethiopia could augment Ethiopia’s fighting power in Tigray for several reasons, one of which is preventing US domination in the region. China, meanwhile, relies on Ethiopia for security and safe passage of its goods as it intensifies the Belt Road initiative on the Red Sea and the region in general. Africa could possibly then have to brace itself for a protracted conflict in Tigray and possibly the Horn of Africa as well. Fukude says that China is moving ahead with its Belt Road initiative, and will be using that route, which is the Red Sea, all the way towards the Suez Canal in transporting goods, and conducting their trade. He said, “The most reliable, and strong army that could at least deal with the threat of pirates, especially the Somalis and possibly Al Shabaab involvement in disturbing their trade, will be Ethiopia, which has, to an extent, maintained stability in that part of the world.” Fukude added, “So China does need Ethiopia, and a stable Ethiopia is very important for trade, not only for China, but for the entire trade in the Suez Canal.”  So, it is likely that China would support Abi Ahmed, and work closely with Ethiopia; for one, according to Fukude, “to ensure that there is a stability in that part of the world, but importantly China is one of the strongest allies at the moment of the African Union – they built the headquarters of the African Union in Addis Ababa – and Ethiopia is likely to call on China as many Western countries drag their feet in terms of condemning or supporting Ethiopia in its fight against Tigray.” He added, “instead we’re seeing a lot of countries condemning Ethiopia, and some countries outside the United States calling for sanctions against Ethiopia. Ethiopia at the moment is seen as an aggressor in Tigray, notwithstanding the primary reasons why Abi Ahmed might in the first place had gone into Tigray. So, China is likely to play a new role.” He says China is also likely to play a new role against Western countries, “who like to see the conflict in Tigray and who would like to see the forces of Ethiopia going back to the barracks”.

China now has more influence in Africa, and in all probability, has a greater interest in the continent than the US. Fukude says that the US will have to make much wiser decisions in terms of who they support. He says he believes the majority of African countries would support Ethiopia because Ethiopia hosts the African Union headquarters, but also because the TPLF wants to secede, to create another country. He said, “I’m not quite sure whether there’s any African country that would like to see a secessionist movement succeeding.” He concluded by saying that China is a big player in Africa, and is one of the fastest growing investors in the quadrant, saying, “they’re putting a lot of money in Africa and investing in many infrastructure projects in Africa, and all of these are coming without conditions. So, it’s likely we are going to see the disturbing of China – Africa relations and China will indeed play a major role. He projected that the conflict in Tigray is likely to continue as a major conflict on the continent, if the African Union and United Nations do not intervene.

Umm Muhammed Umar